Welcome to Round 4! Prediction surveys and prediction markets have different advantages. We open each round with surveys to get your baseline opinion before interaction in the markets influence your evaluation. If you completed your demographics survey, your claim surveys are live! Surveys let us know what you think before the markets open. In this…
One more week of Round 3 Markets! Round 3 Markets are open until November 24, 23:59 UTC. This round’s claims come from 18 journals … see the complete list here. Bonus points awarded! When Round 3 Markets opened, 203 of our forecasters got a bonus: 30 extra points to invest in the markets! Forecasters who trade enough on…
Welcome to Round 3! We begin each Round with a week of surveys. The combined individual assessments of our forecasters sets the baseline for the crowdsourced opinion in the Markets. It’s an important part of the RM process! That’s why we award money for accurate insights in Survey rounds. In this round, we examine claims…
How do I start? Log in: https://predict.replicationmarkets.com/main/#!/login Consider viewing one of our intro videos before forecasting: Intro to the Prediction Market Main Page Making a forecast on the Prediction Market In this round, we examine a selection of claims from the following journals, in papers published 2009-2018. American Journal of Political Science Experimental Economics Journal…
Welcome to Round 1! In this round, we examine a selection of claims from the following journals, in papers published 2009-2018. American Journal of Political Science Experimental Economics Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science Journal of Consumer Research Journal of Experimental Political Science Journal of Experimental Social Psychology Journal of Marketing Research Journal of…
First results are in! The results are in for Round 0 Surveys… We had good participation, with 226 participants providing us answers to 12 surveys. Keep it up! Although we won’t show the survey estimates just yet, they were similar to the market estimates — a good sign. Because the markets will take nearly a…
Round 0 Update Round 0 of Replication Markets closed on Sunday evening here on US East Coast. Between the surveys and the markets, the RM team has a lot of data about meta-claims to sort through. We are calculating winners of Round 0 Surveys. Look for that announcement next week! A bit of data for…
Important Prize Clarifications The total prize amount for a Round is determined by the number of resolving claims in that Round. Payout is proportional to all winning shares in the round, not per-claim. The Round 0 Market will pay $360 x 12 = $4,320 total. If you have 5% of winning shares, you will get 5% of $4,320 = $216, regardless…
Opening Day We had an exciting day at RM HQ as we marked the official opening of Replication Markets on August 12. When the Round 0 Surveys went live, our forecasters began answering questions about the replicability of studies in the last ten years and across disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences. Round 0…
If you haven’t registered yet for Replication Markets, make sure you do by 6pm EDT (UTC 22:00) on Sunday, August 11 to be part of the opening day! If you have already registered, we hope you are excited about the launch of the project. Make sure to finish your intake surveys and verify your email…