Evidence from the first four rounds tl;dr: In our monthly surveys, high participation does not necessarily lead to high prizes – some highly active forecasters earned $0 – suggesting our surrogate score is robust to participation bias. Background The monthly survey prizes are risky. Unlike markets that pay for ground truth (eventually, and for only…
First results are in! The results are in for Round 0 Surveys… We had good participation, with 226 participants providing us answers to 12 surveys. Keep it up! Although we won’t show the survey estimates just yet, they were similar to the market estimates — a good sign. Because the markets will take nearly a…
Important Prize Clarifications The total prize amount for a Round is determined by the number of resolving claims in that Round. Payout is proportional to all winning shares in the round, not per-claim. The Round 0 Market will pay $360 x 12 = $4,320 total. If you have 5% of winning shares, you will get 5% of $4,320 = $216, regardless…
Opening Day We had an exciting day at RM HQ as we marked the official opening of Replication Markets on August 12. When the Round 0 Surveys went live, our forecasters began answering questions about the replicability of studies in the last ten years and across disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences. Round 0…