{"id":5193,"date":"2020-11-02T07:48:48","date_gmt":"2020-11-02T12:48:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/?page_id=5193"},"modified":"2020-11-10T16:27:42","modified_gmt":"2020-11-10T21:27:42","slug":"will-covid-19-studies-replicate","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/rm-c19\/blog\/will-covid-19-studies-replicate\/","title":{"rendered":"Will COVID-19 studies replicate?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Will COVID-19 studies replicate?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tReplication Markets recently estimated replication probabilities for 100 COVID-19 studies from the social and behavioral sciences. We don\u2019t have all the results yet, but let\u2019s see what our forecasters thought. (Note: We just launched another COVID-19 project, we hope you\u2019ll\u00a0sign-up to participate<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0learn more<\/a>).\n

Reviewing our Previous COVID-19 Forecasts<\/a><\/h4>\nBig picture<\/strong>\n\n \t
  • ~75% of studies (everything to the right of the blue line) are estimated to have a better than 50% chance of replicating successfully.<\/li>\n \t
  • In prior research only ~50% of studies replicate successfully, so it\u2019s interesting to note that our forecasters are more optimistic about the studies in this sample.<\/li>\n\nComparing Surveys and Markets<\/strong>\n\nParticipants in Replication Markets express their beliefs about the probability of successful replication two ways: with prediction surveys and markets. We\u2019ll compare the forecasts we get from each of these methods\n\n \t
  • The market estimates are slightly lower (by 1.9%)<\/li>\n \t
  • The market estimates are more varied (ratio of variances = 1.5)<\/li>\nFig 1: Note that each point corresponds to the estimated replication probability for a different study.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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    Do surveys and markets agree about individual studies?<\/a><\/h4>