{"id":1988,"date":"2019-08-13T10:00:19","date_gmt":"2019-08-13T14:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/?p=1988"},"modified":"2019-09-04T08:53:28","modified_gmt":"2019-09-04T12:53:28","slug":"august-13-newsletter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/2019\/08\/13\/august-13-newsletter\/","title":{"rendered":"August 13 Newsletter"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Opening Day <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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We had an exciting day at RM HQ as we marked the official opening of Replication Markets on August 12.<\/strong><\/p>

When the Round 0 Surveys went live, our forecasters began answering questions about the replicability of studies in the last ten years and across disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences.<\/p>

Round 0 Markets will open August 19 at 12:00 UTC (8am EST).<\/b><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Results<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Registered forecasters had the chance to bid on a whimsical practice claim: “What value will this question have when it closes?”<\/p>

The crowd coordinated to a final answer of about 50%…at closing time the value was 53%.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Invite people to join RM<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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More forecasters results in better forecasting.<\/strong> Can you think of a colleague, friend, or student who might be interested in participating? Please share our website and social media channels with your communities.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Both under-confidence and over-confidence are problems.<\/p>

A highly over-confident forecast (e.g. 1% or 99%) can hurt your accuracy the most.<\/p>

But if you think \u201cI have no idea, I\u2019ll just put 50%\u201d\u00a0then you probably aren\u2019t taking advantage of things you actually already know.<\/p>

Consider what you do know, and adjust your forecast a bit up or down…maybe to 55%, or to 45%.<\/p>

Small distinctions are what make you more accurate than another forecaster…and more likely to earn money for forecasts.<\/b><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Opening Day We had an exciting day at RM HQ as we marked the official opening of Replication Markets on August 12. When the Round 0 Surveys went live, our forecasters began answering questions about the replicability of studies in the last ten years and across disciplines in the social and behavioral sciences. Round 0…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,30,46],"tags":[34,51,36,48],"class_list":["post-1988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-announcements","category-results","category-tips","tag-forecasters","tag-invitation","tag-results","tag-tip"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1988"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1988\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1993,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1988\/revisions\/1993"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}