{"id":2102,"date":"2019-09-03T10:00:38","date_gmt":"2019-09-03T14:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/?p=2102"},"modified":"2019-09-03T21:18:15","modified_gmt":"2019-09-04T01:18:15","slug":"p-values-and-initial-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/2019\/09\/03\/p-values-and-initial-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"P-Values and Initial Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2102\" class=\"elementor elementor-2102\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e9b1c16 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e9b1c16\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-365b029\" data-id=\"365b029\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ebc846b\" data-id=\"ebc846b\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d558811 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"d558811\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/market-image.jpeg?fit=300%2C199&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-2130\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/market-image.jpeg?w=400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/market-image.jpeg?resize=300%2C199&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b1cffad\" data-id=\"b1cffad\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f5b4656 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f5b4656\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-02be447\" data-id=\"02be447\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6e46bd3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6e46bd3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Th<\/strong><b>e use of p-values and hypothesis testing is ubiquitous across science<\/b>. Everyone remembers the rules they learnt in their first statistics courses; 0.05 is the magic cut-off for statistical significance. <span lang=\"EN-NZ\">Statistical evidence<\/span> with p-values below 0.05 are accepted \u2013 models with p-values higher than this threshold are discarded. \u00a0<\/p><p><b>However, this statistical practice has come under increasing criticism. <\/b>In 2016 the American Statistical Association <!-- [if supportFields]><span style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'><\/span><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0<\/span>ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION<br \/>{&quot;citationID&quot;:&quot;2Mjdm3ed&quot;,&quot;properties&quot;:{&quot;formattedCitation&quot;:&quot;(Wasserstein<br \/>&amp; Lazar, 2016)&quot;,&quot;plainCitation&quot;:&quot;(Wasserstein &amp;<br \/>Lazar,<br \/>2016)&quot;,&quot;noteIndex&quot;:0},&quot;citationItems&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:126,&quot;uris&quot;:[&quot;http:\/\/zotero.org\/users\/local\/uDWek1Wp\/items\/UW6FTSDK&quot;],&quot;uri&quot;:[&quot;http:\/\/zotero.org\/users\/local\/uDWek1Wp\/items\/UW6FTSDK&quot;],&quot;itemData&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:126,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;article-journal&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The<br \/>ASA Statement on p-Values: Context, Process, and<br \/>Purpose&quot;,&quot;container-title&quot;:&quot;The American<br \/>Statistician&quot;,&quot;page&quot;:&quot;129-133&quot;,&quot;volume&quot;:&quot;70&quot;,&quot;issue&quot;:&quot;2&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;amstat.tandfonline.com<br \/>(Atypon)&quot;,&quot;DOI&quot;:&quot;10.1080\/00031305.2016.1154108&quot;,&quot;ISSN&quot;:&quot;0003-1305&quot;,&quot;title-short&quot;:&quot;The<br \/>ASA Statement on p-Values&quot;,&quot;journalAbbreviation&quot;:&quot;The<br \/>American Statistician&quot;,&quot;author&quot;:[{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Wasserstein&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Ronald<br \/>L.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Lazar&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Nicole<br \/>A.&quot;}],&quot;issued&quot;:{&quot;date-parts&quot;:[[&quot;2016&quot;,4,2]]}}}],&quot;schema&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/github.com\/citation-style-language\/schema\/raw\/master\/csl-citation.json&quot;}<br \/><span style='mso-element:field-separator'><\/span><\/span><![endif]-->(Wasserstein &amp; Lazar, 2016)<!-- [if supportFields]><span style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'><span style='mso-element:field-end'><\/span><\/span><![endif]--> released a statement with six principles on the interpretation of the p-value, with the view to <span lang=\"EN-NZ\">to encourage data analysis to go beyond the p-value<\/span>. Benjamin et al <!-- [if supportFields]><span style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'><\/span><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>\u00a0<\/span>ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION<br \/>{&quot;citationID&quot;:&quot;QM1k5YR6&quot;,&quot;properties&quot;:{&quot;formattedCitation&quot;:&quot;(Benjamin<br \/>et al., 2018)&quot;,&quot;plainCitation&quot;:&quot;(Benjamin et al.,<br \/>2018)&quot;,&quot;dontUpdate&quot;:true,&quot;noteIndex&quot;:0},&quot;citationItems&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:129,&quot;uris&quot;:[&quot;http:\/\/zotero.org\/users\/local\/uDWek1Wp\/items\/MTH485S9&quot;],&quot;uri&quot;:[&quot;http:\/\/zotero.org\/users\/local\/uDWek1Wp\/items\/MTH485S9&quot;],&quot;itemData&quot;:{&quot;id&quot;:129,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;article-journal&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Redefine<br \/>statistical significance&quot;,&quot;container-title&quot;:&quot;Nature Human<br \/>Behaviour&quot;,&quot;page&quot;:&quot;6&quot;,&quot;volume&quot;:&quot;2&quot;,&quot;issue&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;source&quot;:&quot;www.nature.com&quot;,&quot;abstract&quot;:&quot;We<br \/>propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance<br \/>from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of new<br \/>discoveries.&quot;,&quot;DOI&quot;:&quot;10.1038\/s41562-017-0189-z&quot;,&quot;ISSN&quot;:&quot;2397-3374&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;En&quot;,&quot;author&quot;:[{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Benjamin&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Daniel<br \/>J.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Berger&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;James<br \/>O.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Johannesson&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Magnus&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Nosek&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Brian<br \/>A.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Wagenmakers&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;E.-J.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Berk&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Richard&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Bollen&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Kenneth<br \/>A.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Brembs&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Bj\u00f6rn&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Brown&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Lawrence&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Camerer&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Colin&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Cesarini&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;David&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Chambers&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Christopher<br \/>D.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Clyde&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Merlise&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Cook&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Thomas<br \/>D.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Boeck&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Paul<br \/>De&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Dienes&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Zoltan&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Dreber&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Anna&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Easwaran&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Kenny&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Efferson&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Charles&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Fehr&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Ernst&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Fidler&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Fiona&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Field&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Andy<br \/>P.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Forster&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Malcolm&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;George&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Edward<br \/>I.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Gonzalez&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Richard&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Goodman&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Steven&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Green&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Edwin&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Green&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Donald<br \/>P.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Greenwald&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Anthony<br \/>G.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Hadfield&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Jarrod<br \/>D.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Hedges&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Larry<br \/>V.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Held&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Leonhard&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Ho&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Teck<br \/>Hua&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Hoijtink&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Herbert&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Hruschka&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Daniel<br \/>J.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Imai&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Kosuke&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Imbens&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Guido&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Ioannidis&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;John<br \/>P.<br \/>A.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Jeon&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Minjeong&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Jones&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;James<br \/>Holland&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Kirchler&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Michael&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Laibson&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;David&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;List&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;John&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Little&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Roderick&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Lupia&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Arthur&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Machery&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Edouard&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Maxwell&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Scott<br \/>E.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;McCarthy&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Michael&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Moore&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Don<br \/>A.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Morgan&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Stephen<br \/>L.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Munaf\u00f3&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Marcus&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Nakagawa&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Shinichi&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Nyhan&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Brendan&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Parker&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Timothy<br \/>H.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Pericchi&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Luis&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Perugini&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Marco&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Rouder&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Jeff&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Rousseau&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Judith&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Savalei&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Victoria&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Sch\u00f6nbrodt&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Felix<br \/>D.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Sellke&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Thomas&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Sinclair&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Betsy&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Tingley&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Dustin&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Zandt&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Trisha<br \/>Van&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Vazire&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Simine&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Watts&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Duncan<br \/>J.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Winship&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Christopher&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Wolpert&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Robert<br \/>L.&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Xie&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Yu&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Young&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Cristobal&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Zinman&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Jonathan&quot;},{&quot;family&quot;:&quot;Johnson&quot;,&quot;given&quot;:&quot;Valen<br \/>E.&quot;}],&quot;issued&quot;:{&quot;date-parts&quot;:[[&quot;2018&quot;,1]]}}}],&quot;schema&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/github.com\/citation-style-language\/schema\/raw\/master\/csl-citation.json&quot;}<br \/><span style='mso-element:field-separator'><\/span><\/span><![endif]-->(2018)<!-- [if supportFields]><span style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-element:field-end'><\/span><\/span><![endif]--> proposed changing the default cut-off of statistical significance to 0.005.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-90c8ca8 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"90c8ca8\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d609abf\" data-id=\"d609abf\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9e6fd7b elementor-widget elementor-widget-blockquote\" data-id=\"9e6fd7b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"blockquote.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-36907e7 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"36907e7\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-0c66335\" data-id=\"0c66335\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f839f18 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f839f18\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>We looked at the replication outcomes and associated original p-values of 104 studies. These 104 studies were replicated as part of the Replication Project Psychology (RPP), Many Labs 2 Project (ML2), Experimental Economics Replication Project (EERP), or the Social Science Replication Project (SSRP).\u00a0<\/p><p>Of these 104 studies&#8217; hypothesis tests, 5 (4.8%) studies had p-values above 0.05 (significant at the 10% level), 40 (38.5%) studies had p-values between 0.01 and 0.05 (significant at the 5% level), 25 (24%) studies had p-values between 0.01 and 0.001 and 34 (32.7%) studies had p-values of 0.001 and below.<\/p><p><b>Analysing the replication rates in each of these categories we can we see that p-value of the original study alone is good predictor of replication success.<\/b><\/p><ul><li>For p-value &lt;=0.001 replication success rate is 82%<\/li><li>For p-value &lt;= 0.01 replication success rate is 44%<\/li><li>For p-value &gt; 0.01 replication success rate is 27%<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-463a9a0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"463a9a0\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-06286bf\" data-id=\"06286bf\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3c1864f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3c1864f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>This information provides us a great starting point for forecasting the replication rates. When setting up prediction markets, an initial price is set. In previous replication markets (RPP, EERP, SSRP and ML2) initial prices were set at 0.5. This initial pricing was not too far off overall replication rate (around 49%), and was a simple, straight-forward starting price. However, <b>we can see from above that we can make a much more informed initial estimate of a study&#8217;s replication success probability through the p-value of the original study.<\/b><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-878a3a1 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"878a3a1\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f8d8034\" data-id=\"f8d8034\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3bb02c8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-blockquote\" data-id=\"3bb02c8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"blockquote.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f4ae7b9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f4ae7b9\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-a2a8365\" data-id=\"a2a8365\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ff14715 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ff14715\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>To set the initial prices, we will split each study into one of three categories based on its p-value.<\/p><ul><li><strong>For studies with p-values of 0.001 or below the initial price will be 0.8<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>For studies with p-values between 0.001 and 0.01 the initial price will be 0.4<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>For studies with p-values higher than 0.01 the initial price will be 0.3<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><p>These initial prices are simply the rounded figures of the percentage successful replications in the past data.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7cee0fe elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7cee0fe\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>References:<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6280938 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6280938\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7771b90\" data-id=\"7771b90\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-60d61da elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"60d61da\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li>Benjamin, D. J., Berger, J. O., Johannesson, M., Nosek, B. A., Wagenmakers, E.-J., Berk, R., \u2026 Johnson, V. E. (2018). Redefine statistical significance. Nature Human Behaviour, 2(1), 6. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41562-017-0189-z\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41562-017-0189-z<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d6785fe\" data-id=\"d6785fe\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eaea25d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"eaea25d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li>Wasserstein, R. L., &amp; Lazar, N. A. (2016). The ASA Statement on p-Values: Context, Process, and Purpose. The American Statistician, 70(2), 129\u2013133. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/00031305.2016.1154108\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/00031305.2016.1154108<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3be949a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3be949a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3ca6216\" data-id=\"3ca6216\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f2e275e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f2e275e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Learn more about this post&#8217;s author at his homepage:<\/p><p><a style=\"background-color: #ffffff;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.marketeconomics.co.nz\/our-team\/michael\">http:\/\/www.marketeconomics.co.nz\/our-team\/michael<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The use of p-values and hypothesis testing is ubiquitous across science. Everyone remembers the rules they learnt in their first statistics courses; 0.05 is the magic cut-off for statistical significance. Statistical evidence with p-values below 0.05 are accepted \u2013 models with p-values higher than this threshold are discarded. &nbsp; However, this statistical practice has come&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[19,24],"tags":[26,29,25,28,27],"class_list":["post-2102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-prediction-markets","category-statistics","tag-hypothesis-testing","tag-initial-value","tag-p-values","tag-prediction-market","tag-replication"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2102"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2102\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2135,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2102\/revisions\/2135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}