{"id":2434,"date":"2019-09-13T11:50:51","date_gmt":"2019-09-13T15:50:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/?p=2434"},"modified":"2019-09-13T13:19:30","modified_gmt":"2019-09-13T17:19:30","slug":"surveys-markets-and-claims","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/2019\/09\/13\/surveys-markets-and-claims\/","title":{"rendered":"Surveys, Markets, and Claims"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2434\" class=\"elementor elementor-2434\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-0b0cb3c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"0b0cb3c\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-bbba840\" data-id=\"bbba840\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5850964 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5850964\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>We have heard from our forecasters, and you have questions!\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Where&#8217;s the prediction market?<\/li><\/ul><p><em>Short answer:<\/em> it will open after the surveys close.<\/p><ul><li>Why are we taking surveys?<\/li><\/ul><div><p><em>Short answer:<\/em> to be eligible for prize money paid out monthly! &#8230;And for science.<\/p><\/div><div><b><i>Read on to learn more&#8230;<\/i><\/b><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-27f3022 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"27f3022\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-685162c elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"685162c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>The RM project is structured in Rounds of Surveys followed by Markets.<\/strong> Each round features about 300 claims published in <a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/index.php\/frequently-asked-questions\/list-of-journals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">various behavioral and social science journals<\/a> during 2009-2018.<\/p><p><strong>During a Survey week,<\/strong> forecasters provide their individual assessments of the replication potential of that round&#8217;s claims. These responses establish the baseline for the crowdsourced opinion.<\/p><p><strong>During a round&#8217;s Market weeks,<\/strong> forecasters collectively decide on the replication probability of the same claims considered during Survey week. We then compare the market results to the survey results.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e02ee8a elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"e02ee8a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"366\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/survey-model-graphic-v2.png?fit=768%2C366&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large wp-image-2442\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/survey-model-graphic-v2.png?w=943&amp;ssl=1 943w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/survey-model-graphic-v2.png?resize=300%2C143&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/survey-model-graphic-v2.png?resize=768%2C366&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f2f00d7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f2f00d7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>One of the ideas we are testing is that market results are more accurate than survey results. For better data, we need forecasters to participate in both Surveys and Markets. So for a more complete answer to those questions:<\/p><ul><li><b>Where&#8217;s the prediction market?<\/b><\/li><\/ul><p>It&#8217;s coming! As of this writing, we are nearing the end of the Survey week of Round 1. Surveys will close on Sunday, and Markets will open on Monday.\u00a0<\/p><ul><li><strong>Why are we taking surveys?<\/strong><\/li><\/ul><p>Survey responses inform the data we collect from the markets. For our research purposes, we need forecasters to use both methods. As an incentive to complete surveys,<b> we offer $4800 to be distributed among top forecasters of each round of Surveys.<\/b>\u00a0<\/p><p>Specifically during a Survey week,<\/p><ul><li>claims are split into 30 batches of 9-10 claims each.<\/li><li>each batch will award $80 to the top forecaster, $40 to the second place forecaster, and $20 each to third and fourth place.<\/li><li>the more batches you complete, the more money you are eligible to win.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We have heard from our forecasters, and you have questions!\u00a0 Where&#8217;s the prediction market? Short answer: it will open after the surveys close. Why are we taking surveys? Short answer: to be eligible for prize money paid out monthly! &#8230;And for science. Read on to learn more&#8230; The RM project is structured in Rounds of&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[20,21,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forecasting","category-metascience","category-statistics"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2434"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2434\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2448,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2434\/revisions\/2448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}