{"id":2457,"date":"2019-09-16T08:06:02","date_gmt":"2019-09-16T12:06:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/?p=2457"},"modified":"2019-09-16T09:24:30","modified_gmt":"2019-09-16T13:24:30","slug":"round-1-markets-are-open","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/2019\/09\/16\/round-1-markets-are-open\/","title":{"rendered":"Round 1 Markets are open!"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2457\" class=\"elementor elementor-2457\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5f50f53 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5f50f53\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1037a80\" data-id=\"1037a80\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-78c1726 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"78c1726\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">How do I start?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fa3b90 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1fa3b90\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li>Log in: <a href=\"https:\/\/predict.replicationmarkets.com\/main\/#!\/login\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/predict.replicationmarkets.com\/main\/#!\/login<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p><strong>Consider viewing one of our intro videos before forecasting:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/NQxT30QtUDM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Intro to the Prediction Market Main Page<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/sGaQvzM4qMw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Making a forecast on the Prediction Market<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-d245a5a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"d245a5a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-a3da0b2\" data-id=\"a3da0b2\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-688c496 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"688c496\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>In this round, we examine a selection of claims from the following journals, in papers published 2009-2018.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a91ff3a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a91ff3a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-d2546cd\" data-id=\"d2546cd\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f50ed31 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"f50ed31\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6e27d49 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"6e27d49\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"266\" height=\"400\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/stack-of-journals.jpeg?fit=266%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large wp-image-2179\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/stack-of-journals.jpeg?w=266&amp;ssl=1 266w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/stack-of-journals.jpeg?resize=200%2C300&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 266px) 100vw, 266px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-657d79f\" data-id=\"657d79f\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2c043a4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2c043a4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li>American Journal of Political Science<\/li><li>Experimental Economics<\/li><li>Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science<\/li><li>Journal of Consumer Research<\/li><li>Journal of Experimental Political Science<\/li><li>Journal of Experimental Social Psychology<\/li><li>Journal of Marketing Research<\/li><li>Journal of Applied Psychology<\/li><li>Journal of Labor Economics<\/li><li>Journal of Marketing<\/li><li>Journal of Marriage and Family<\/li><li>Journal of Organizational Behavior<\/li><li>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology<\/li><li>Law and Human Behavior<\/li><li>Psychological Science<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e1ab692 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e1ab692\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b298301\" data-id=\"b298301\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2db62b5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2db62b5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Timeline<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-71a48e4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"71a48e4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The Round 1 Prediction Market will be available from Monday, September 16, 12:00 UTC (8 a.m. US EDT) until Sunday, September 29, 22:00 UTC (6 p.m. US EDT).<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1e03088 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1e03088\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Prizes<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7399b43 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7399b43\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Trading is open for two weeks<\/strong>, after which the market is frozen until the final result is known. From each round only about 10\u202f markets will resolve and pay out. DARPA will reveal those resolved markets in mid-2020. For more details, read Explanation of Payouts.<\/p><p><strong>To compete for more immediate payouts,<\/strong> make sure to participate in Survey weeks! Round 2 surveys open October 7.<\/p><p><b>Why markets and surveys?<\/b> Read\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/13\/surveys-markets-and-claims\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">our blog post<\/a>\u00a0on this topic.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How do I start? Log in: https:\/\/predict.replicationmarkets.com\/main\/#!\/login Consider viewing one of our intro videos before forecasting: Intro to the Prediction Market Main Page Making a forecast on the Prediction Market In this round, we examine a selection of claims from the following journals, in papers published 2009-2018. American Journal of Political Science Experimental Economics Journal&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-2457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-announcements","tag-rounds"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2457"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2457\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2462,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2457\/revisions\/2462"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}