{"id":2729,"date":"2019-10-14T08:02:10","date_gmt":"2019-10-14T12:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/?p=2729"},"modified":"2019-10-14T12:52:33","modified_gmt":"2019-10-14T16:52:33","slug":"round-2-markets-are-open","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/2019\/10\/14\/round-2-markets-are-open\/","title":{"rendered":"Round 2 Markets are open!"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2729\" class=\"elementor elementor-2729\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-daf44f5 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"daf44f5\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6af3d10\" data-id=\"6af3d10\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-623963a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"623963a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">How do I start?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-edcf40b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"edcf40b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-16 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-59b1894\" data-id=\"59b1894\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-66 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-8d35365\" data-id=\"8d35365\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c489539 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c489539\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li>Log in: <a href=\"https:\/\/predict.replicationmarkets.com\/main\/#!\/login\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/predict.replicationmarkets.com\/main\/#!\/login<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p><strong>Consider viewing one of our intro videos before forecasting:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.zendesk.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/360034768732-Introduction-to-Replication-Markets-Main-Page\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Intro to the Prediction Market Main Page<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.zendesk.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/360035145051-How-to-Make-a-Forecast\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Making a forecast on the Prediction Market<\/a><\/li><li>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.zendesk.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/360034768792-Made-a-Mistake-How-to-Revise-an-Estimate-on-the-Prediction-Market\">Make a mistake? Revise an estimate on the Prediction Market<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.zendesk.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/360034768832-Did-You-Run-Out-of-Points-How-to-Reallocate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Run out of points? Reallocate points across claims<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a2c88b2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a2c88b2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>In this round, we examine a selection of claims from the following journals, in papers published 2009-2018.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-16 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3f3967d\" data-id=\"3f3967d\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-111552d elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"111552d\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-80857dc\" data-id=\"80857dc\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7c8d6ee elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"7c8d6ee\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"266\" height=\"400\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/stack-of-journals.jpeg?fit=266%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large wp-image-2179\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/stack-of-journals.jpeg?w=266&amp;ssl=1 266w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/stack-of-journals.jpeg?resize=200%2C300&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 266px) 100vw, 266px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-0e41c43\" data-id=\"0e41c43\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4d2ccd9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4d2ccd9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li>American Journal of Political Science<\/li><li>Experimental Economics<\/li><li>Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science<\/li><li>Journal of Consumer Research<\/li><li>Journal of Experimental Political Science<\/li><li>Journal of Experimental Social Psychology<\/li><li>Journal of Marketing Research<\/li><li>Journal of Applied Psychology<\/li><li>Journal of Labor Economics<\/li><li>Journal of Marketing<\/li><li>Journal of Marriage and Family<\/li><li>Journal of Organizational Behavior<\/li><li>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology<\/li><li>Law and Human Behavior<\/li><li>Psychological Science<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-827b5ed elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"827b5ed\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-16 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f553880\" data-id=\"f553880\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-66 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-dfdbd6a\" data-id=\"dfdbd6a\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2aec949 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2aec949\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Timeline<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-96b1d1f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"96b1d1f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The Round 1 Prediction Market will be available from Monday, September 16, 12:00 UTC (8 a.m. US EDT) until Sunday, September 29, 22:00 UTC (6 p.m. US EDT).<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-66f585b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"66f585b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Prizes<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0d6a07f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0d6a07f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Trading is open for two weeks<\/strong>, after which the market is frozen until the final result is known. From each round only about 10\u202f markets will resolve and pay out. DARPA will reveal those resolved markets in mid-2020. For more details, read Explanation of Payouts.<\/p><p><strong>To compete for more immediate payouts,<\/strong> make sure to participate in Survey weeks! Round 2 surveys open October 7.<\/p><p><b>Why markets and surveys?<\/b> Read\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/13\/surveys-markets-and-claims\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">our blog post<\/a>\u00a0on this topic.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-16 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-355bae3\" data-id=\"355bae3\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-24b929e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"24b929e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-46af286\" data-id=\"46af286\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How do I start? Log in: https:\/\/predict.replicationmarkets.com\/main\/#!\/login Consider viewing one of our intro videos before forecasting: Intro to the Prediction Market Main Page Making a forecast on the Prediction Market \u00a0Make a mistake? Revise an estimate on the Prediction Market Run out of points? Reallocate points across claims In this round, we examine a selection&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2729"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2729\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2743,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2729\/revisions\/2743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}