{"id":3912,"date":"2020-05-12T17:30:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-12T21:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/?p=3912"},"modified":"2020-05-12T17:22:36","modified_gmt":"2020-05-12T21:22:36","slug":"we-just-gave-all-our-forecasters-130-more-points","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/2020\/05\/12\/we-just-gave-all-our-forecasters-130-more-points\/","title":{"rendered":"We just gave all our forecasters 130 more points"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3912\" class=\"elementor elementor-3912\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6b665c0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6b665c0\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5cd0781\" data-id=\"5cd0781\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-baf8371 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"baf8371\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>We made a mistake when we set starting prices in Round 7, so we&#8217;re giving everyone 130 more points to help fix it.<\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2665dd8 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"2665dd8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-39fe414 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"39fe414\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Normally, we set a claim&#8217;s starting price based on a simple model, its p-value:<\/p><ul><li>p &lt; .001 starts at 80%<\/li><li>p &lt; .01 starts at 40%,<\/li><li>p &lt; .05 starts at 30%.<\/li><\/ul><p>Due to a scripting error, 141 claims in Round 7 had the wrong starting price.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a00fdd7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a00fdd7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>You may be able to take advantage of our error.<\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6cbfb9e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6cbfb9e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li><strong>In previous replications,<\/strong> our pricing model was about 65-70% accurate. To the extent the Round 7 claims resemble those in the model, there may be some low-hanging fruit of mispriced claims.<\/li><li><strong>Giving everyone 130 extra points<\/strong> should be about enough to let the market correct itself if it wants to.<\/li><li><strong>Consider investing in the following claims.<\/strong>To the extent these claims are like previous claims, starting prices of our model are a good first guess.\u00a0<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-56a0a73 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"56a0a73\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>Some of the claims mistakenly started at 30% are still more than .05 from what should have been the starting price.<\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-4f0caae elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4f0caae\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-245f1e7\" data-id=\"245f1e7\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e0d115a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e0d115a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"text-build-content\"><strong>The following should have started at 80%:<\/strong><\/p><p class=\"text-build-content\">2043, 2044, 2045, 2055, 2056, 2061, 2066, 2077, 2082, 2084, 2089, 2091, 2093, 2100, 2107, 2109, 2117, 2120, 2124, 2125, 2133, 2134, 2137, 2139, 2140, 2142, 2143, 2149, 2152, 2153, 2162, 2164, 2165, 2168, 2171, 2182, 2183, 2190, 2191, 2196, 2197, 2200, 2212, 2218, 2227, 2228, 2231, 2236, 2239, 2260, 2265, 2270, 2272, 2277, 2280, 2287, 2289, 2295, 2298, 2301, 2307, 2321, 2322, 2330, 2336<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-11e8d8f\" data-id=\"11e8d8f\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-235879a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"235879a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"text-build-content\"><strong>The following should have started at 40%:<\/strong><\/p><p class=\"text-build-content\">2042, 2059, 2085, 2086, 2105, 2115, 2126, 2129, 2131, 2136, 2145, 2146, 2147, 2173, 2189, 2193, 2199, 2206, 2224, 2230, 2234, 2238, 2241, 2244, 2262, 2266, 2271, 2273, 2281, 2285, 2291, 2296, 2299, 2314, 2317, 2331, 2332, 2333, 2334<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-211b77c elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"211b77c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ec49c07 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"ec49c07\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Pro Tip<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f2b6c5e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f2b6c5e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"text-build-content\">Quickly access a claim by substituting its id number (as listed above) for XXXX in this url:<\/p><p class=\"text-build-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/predict.replicationmarkets.com\/app\/market-claim\/2043\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><u>https:\/\/predict.replicationmarkets.com\/app\/market-claim\/XXXX<\/u><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-ae8b556 elementor-section-content-middle elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ae8b556\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-80a34f8\" data-id=\"80a34f8\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-eee790c elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"eee790c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"157\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/friendly-bots.jpeg?fit=300%2C157&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium wp-image-3811\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/friendly-bots.jpeg?w=574&amp;ssl=1 574w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/friendly-bots.jpeg?resize=300%2C157&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-0b6b344\" data-id=\"0b6b344\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fbbbe2b elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fbbbe2b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>When we enable NoiseBot and PriorBot later in the market week, PriorBot will use the correct starting prices according to our model, not the incorrect starting prices, for the claims listed above.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1495652 elementor-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"1495652\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/predict.replicationmarkets.com\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Sign in to Predict<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We made a mistake when we set starting prices in Round 7, so we&#8217;re giving everyone 130 more points to help fix it. Normally, we set a claim&#8217;s starting price based on a simple model, its p-value: p &lt; .001 starts at 80% p &lt; .01 starts at 40%, p &lt; .05 starts at 30%.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3912"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3912\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3916,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3912\/revisions\/3916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}