{"id":4073,"date":"2020-06-15T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-06-15T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/?p=4073"},"modified":"2020-07-14T10:33:05","modified_gmt":"2020-07-14T14:33:05","slug":"forecaster-question-how-do-the-markets-function","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/2020\/06\/15\/forecaster-question-how-do-the-markets-function\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecaster Question: How do the markets function?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4073\" class=\"elementor elementor-4073\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-fc82c57 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"fc82c57\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-dcc52f1\" data-id=\"dcc52f1\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2650e80 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2650e80\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>A recently registered forecaster writes:<\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-218bc7b elementor-widget elementor-widget-blockquote\" data-id=\"218bc7b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"blockquote.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-662aecc elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"662aecc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>If you have similar sentiments, read on for the response.<\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f6fb476 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"f6fb476\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3ec0795 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3ec0795\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The market forecast is equivalent to a price&#8230; the current value\/cost of a share in the &#8220;Yes&#8221; outcome.<br \/><br \/>The same basic action can be thought about, or talked about, different ways:<\/p><ul><li>&#8220;Spending points&#8221; = &#8220;trading&#8221; = &#8220;changing the market forecast&#8221;<\/li><li>Or we might just call it &#8220;forecasting in the market.&#8221;<\/li><\/ul><p>You can think about owning shares in an outcome &#8220;Yes&#8221; or &#8220;No&#8221; if that&#8217;s helpful to you.\u00a0<br \/><br \/>You start each round in the markets with a fresh budget of points. Read more about it at<a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.zendesk.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/360032230711-Points-Distribution\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> this link.<\/a><br \/><br \/>When Replication Markets concludes, we will learn which claims actually were the subject of a replication effort. This will only occur for 5-10% of the claims available for forecasting. For these claims points\/shares invested in the correct outcome will payout cash prizes (in U.S. dollars). See\u00a0\u00a0<br \/>the<a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.zendesk.com\/hc\/en-us\/articles\/360031888952-Explanation-of-Payouts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Explanation of Payouts<\/a> for info on the size of those prizes.<br \/><br \/>For more info see here:<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.zendesk.com\/hc\/en-us\" rel=\"noreferrer\">https:\/\/replicationmarkets.zendesk.com\/hc\/en-us<\/a><br \/><br \/>A couple of quick tips for the markets.<\/p><ul><li>Do invest all your points by spreading your bets over multiple claims. You&#8217;re likely to win more, and help our research more.<\/li><li>If you bet, and then find a different claim that is, in your opinion, &#8220;more wrong,&#8221; you can withdraw points from the former claim so you can address the latter.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A recently registered forecaster writes: I have a hard time understanding how the markets actually function, i.e. how to spend points, how to gain points, how the payout is calculated. So basically I can click the button to trade, but I don\u2019t have a detailed understanding what it means to trade. If you have similar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4073"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4073\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4076,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4073\/revisions\/4076"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}