{"id":4373,"date":"2020-08-06T15:41:32","date_gmt":"2020-08-06T19:41:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/?p=4373"},"modified":"2020-08-06T15:51:29","modified_gmt":"2020-08-06T19:51:29","slug":"round-11-featuring-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/2020\/08\/06\/round-11-featuring-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"Round 11 featuring COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4373\" class=\"elementor elementor-4373\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-60415978 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"60415978\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-38f121c\" data-id=\"38f121c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7d3ea39f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7d3ea39f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">The Basics<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RM will present 100 claims featuring the topic of COVID-19 from the following social and behavioral sciences:\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Economics<\/li>\n<li>Epidemiology<\/li>\n<li>Political Science<\/li>\n<li>Psychology<\/li>\n<li>Public Administration<\/li>\n<li>Sociology<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These claims were selected by the <a href=\"http:\/\/osf.io\">Center for Open Science<\/a> using three preprint services:<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/\">medRxiv<\/a>, the preprint server for health sciences<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/psyarxiv.com\/\">PsyArXiv<\/a>, a preprint service for psychological sciences<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/preprints\/socarxiv\">SocArXiv<\/a>, a preprint service for the social sciences<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, RM will continue to offer\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/scite.ai\">scite_<\/a> &#8220;an award-winning platform for discovering and evaluating scientific articles via Smart Citations&#8221; to assist you in evaluating claims &#8211; though their preprint coverage may be uneven.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"wp-image-4376\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/scite_widget-1024x184.jpeg?resize=682%2C122&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"682\" height=\"122\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/scite_widget.jpeg?resize=1024%2C184&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/scite_widget.jpeg?resize=300%2C54&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/scite_widget.jpeg?resize=768%2C138&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/replicationmarkets.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/scite_widget.jpeg?w=1045&amp;ssl=1 1045w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 682px) 100vw, 682px\" \/>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<figcaption>scite_ widget<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">The Calendar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RM Surveys will run for one (1) week.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Monday, August 24 &#8211; Monday, August 31<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RM Markets will run for four (4) weeks to allow you to update your trades in response to relevant news and new results.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Monday, August 31\u00a0 &#8211; Monday, September 28<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Resolution and Payout<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Surveys<\/strong> &#8211; RM anticipates Surveys will be resolved within a month after the closing. There will be 10 batches of the usual $160 per batch: $80, $40, $20, $20 for the top four (4) Forecasters per batch.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Markets<\/strong> &#8211; RM anticipates Markets to resolve by the end of the year with 20% &#8211; 50% of the claims being tested. As with Rounds 6-10, the market prize pool will be $750 per resolved claim, divided proportional to total winning shares in the Round.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Please refer to the <a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\/index.php\/frequently-asked-questions\/rules\/\">Rules<\/a> for additional information.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">Participation<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RM is always looking for sustaining and new Citizen Scientists to join us as a Forecaster. As Kathy Peach, head of Collective Intelligence at Nesta UK, said,<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;If you take a collective view by bringing together and combining the predictions of lots of different people you get to a more accurate result because they all hold different pieces of information that help to build a more complete picture overall. By combining those individual forecasts you\u2019re also cancelling out, perhaps, some of the biases or inaccuracies that might exist in one individual forecast alone.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><cite><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/future\/article\/20190822-the-skills-you-need-to-predict-the-future\">https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/future\/article\/20190822-the-skills-you-need-to-predict-the-future<\/a><\/cite><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To start your adventure as an RM Forecaster, please go to <a href=\"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.com\">https:\/\/replicationmarkets.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">And Finally&#8230;<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our first Replications Markets paper was published a couple of weeks ago by the Royal Society Open Science! &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsos.200566\">Are replication rates the same across academic fields? Community forecasts from the DARPA SCORE programme&#8221;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">#COVID-19 #OpenScience #forecasting #DARPA #royalsociety #KathyPeach #Jacobs #replications #scite_\u00a0 #economics #epidemeology #politicalscience #psychology #publicadministration #sociology<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Basics RM will present 100 claims featuring the topic of COVID-19 from the following social and behavioral sciences:\u00a0 Economics Epidemiology Political Science Psychology Public Administration Sociology These claims were selected by the Center for Open Science using three preprint services: medRxiv, the preprint server for health sciences PsyArXiv, a preprint service for psychological sciences&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4373"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4373\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4415,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4373\/revisions\/4415"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/replicationmarkets.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}