Replication Markets Round 7 finished May 25. Now that the Markets have closed, we can announce the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 26 winners!
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 7 Surveys featured 33 batches of 10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.
Round 7 Winners will be notified by email at the email address registered with the username on the RM platform. Prizes must be claimed by June 26, 2020.
| rm_user | $900 |
| braoi | $840 |
| unipedal | $800 |
| Frantisek | $520 |
| Ilei | $380 |
| bjaeger | $240 |
| BBalmford | $220 |
| Pavol | $200 |
| Nokta | $200 |
| CPM | $160 |
| sgo72 | $140 |
| stanlaurel | $100 |
| jc20 | $80 |
| anshul96go | $80 |
| fcasoria | $80 |
| philip_p | $60 |
| AchinToBe | $40 |
| sattuma | $40 |
| levent | $40 |
| Bono | $40 |
| relihan | $20 |
| Luthor113 | $20 |
| Lenkafiala | $20 |
| bmandl | $20 |
| antipodeanlurker | $20 |
| prorgan | $20 |