Dear Forecasters: Wow! What a year it’s been! Did you know you completed 54,000 surveys and 42,000 trades on 3,000 studies? Plus the current COVID-19 Round 11? That’s stunning. Replication Markets Recap: The View From 3,000 Claims The forecasts are in. The results are not. But there’s quite a bit we can say – if you don’t mind preliminary results.…
Replication Markets Round 11 finished September 28. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 17 winners. Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods…
In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 100 claims from the 3 preprint services of Round 11’s surveys. For more information about Round 11’s featured topic of COVID-19, please see our blog post. Timeline for Round 11 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, August 31, 12:00 UTC until Monday, September 28,…
Welcome to Round 11 featuring claims from research on COVID-19 In this round, we examine 100 claims from preprints selected by the Center for Open Science. For more details about these claims, see our blog post: Round 11 featuring COVID-19. In Round 11, there are 10 batches of 10 claims each. Log in to Predict…
To participate in Round 11, all forecasters must indicate acceptance of the updated informed consent terms, chiefly that R11 will have 100 claims, of which 20-50% resolve, and will run for 5 weeks. New participants will see the updated consent form when they sign up. Everyone will see and must accept a change notice on…
Replication Markets Round 10 finished August 17. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 23 winners. Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods…
Happily, we have seen little evidence of fraud during RM. However, due diligence requires we check at least monthly, and in Round 8 we disqualified 11 accounts for improper collaboration. We cannot offer details, but we can say several would have won survey prizes, and that warning flags included clear ties to a single established…
The Basics RM will present 100 claims featuring the topic of COVID-19 from the following social and behavioral sciences: Economics Epidemiology Political Science Psychology Public Administration Sociology These claims were selected by the Center for Open Science using three preprint services: medRxiv, the preprint server for health sciences PsyArXiv, a preprint service for psychological sciences…
In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 304 claims from the 31 journals of Round 10’s surveys. For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 10 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, August 3, 12:00 UTC until Monday, August 17, 06:00 UTC (that’s 2am Monday US EDT). Trading…
Welcome to Round 10! In this round, we examine 304 claims (published 2009-2018) from 31 journals: American Journal of Sociology British Journal of Political Science Criminology Demography Evolution and Human Behavior Experimental Economics Health Psychology Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology Journal of Experimental Political Science Journal of Experimental Social Psychology Journal of Marriage and Family…