The Royal Society Open Science online journal published “Are replication rates the same across academic fields? Community forecasts from the DARPA SCORE programme” the first paper to discuss results from the DARPA SCORE project. Dr. Charles Twardy, principal investigator, said, “This paper presents our “Round 0” forecasts showing participants’ overall expectations field and year, before…
Replication Markets Round 9 finished July 20. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 23 winners. Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods…
Replication Markets Round 8 finished June 8. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 21 winners. Improbably, two forecasters had an exact tie (to the 6th decimal place) on one batch. Rather than determining a tie-breaker, we awarded each of them $20. Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay…
Courtesy post for other researchers. (Some of them are on RM, but this is not an RM project.) This is a crowd-sourced initiative to replicate original unpublished studies in independent laboratories. You can read the Pipeline Project 1 paper published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology here. For the Pipeline Project 2, different research…
Welcome to Round 9! In this round, we examine 330 claims (published 2009-2018) from 22 journals: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics American Economic Review Child Development Clinical Psychological Science Computers & Education Econometrica Educational Researcher European Sociological Review Journal of Conflict Resolution Journal of Educational Psychology Journal of Financial Economics Journal of Management Journal of…
To spur activity in Round 8 Markets, every forecaster has been awarded up to 250 bonus points. Don’t spend them all in one place! Statistically, you’re much more likely to make profits (and help our accuracy) if you spread your investment over many claims. Markets are open through June 22, 06:00 UTC (2am on Monday…
A recently registered forecaster writes: I have a hard time understanding how the markets actually function, i.e. how to spend points, how to gain points, how the payout is calculated. So basically I can click the button to trade, but I don’t have a detailed understanding what it means to trade. If you have similar…
The shorter version: Market leaderboards show the expected value of your Round portfolio, in points (฿). They refresh every few hours. If the market is accurate, they will roughly predict prizes. Survey leaderboards sum your rank score for each batch in that Round. Rank score is just inverted rank: 1 is the worst. Survey prizes…
In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 330 claims from the 26 journals of Round 8’s surveys. For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 8 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, June 8, 12:00 UTC until Monday, June 22, 06:00 UTC (that’s 2am Monday US EDT). Trading…
Welcome to Round 8! In this round, we examine 330 claims (published 2009-2018) from 26 journals: Academy of Management Journal American Economic Journal: Applied Economics American Economic Review Child Development Clinical Psychological Science Comparative Political Studies Computers & Education Contemporary Educational Psychology Educational Researcher European Sociological Review Exceptional Children Journal of Educational Psychology Journal of…