Revised results After an internal audit, we discovered an error in the reporting process for Round 5 Survey winners: while the winning forecasters remain the same, the reported values were incorrect. Many thanks to a sharp-eyed forecaster (@AlvaroDeMenard) who noticed lack of correlation between the Round 5 Surveys leaderboard and the reported value of awards. …
We anticipate Round 6 Markets to open on Monday, February 17, pending approval from our Institutional Review Board (IRB). Due to the changes in SCORE’s definition of “replication,” (see our blog post), more claims will resolve. This necessitates a change in our prize structure and approval by the (IRB). The new prize structure is described in…
Welcome to Round 6! In this round, we examine claims (published 2009-2018) from the following journals: 1. Academy of Management Journal 2. American Economic Review 3. American Educational Research Journal 4. Cognition 5. Comparative Political Studies 6. Demography 7. European Journal of Personality 8. Evolution and Human Behavior 9. Exceptional Children 10. Health Psychology 11.…
Lenka Fiala is a busy woman: she is a full time Ph.D student at Tilburg University, she is a successful forecaster with Replication Markets, and she stays active through circus disciplines. We interviewed Lenka by Skype about her experience in our project. Tell us a little about yourself and your academic interests and why you…
Inspired by a tweet from our social media team, Replication Markets PI Charles Twardy gives a lesson on what it means to “defend your position.” The trade of the next forecaster replaces the trade you just made. If you still have points, return to defend your position. Many smaller nudges have more power than a…
One more week of Round 4 Markets! Round 4 Markets are open until December 22, 23:59 UTC. This round’s claims come from 20 journals … see the complete list here. Coming soon to the RM platform! An API for automated trading is almost ready. Interested? Write to us with the subject line “BOT API” User interface…
We have noticed some behavior in the markets that leads us to believe that some of our forecasters have missed the “market” part of the project. There are many null trades where a forecaster has submitted no change at all. Three null trades on one claim. Only “bjaeger” made a forecast. The markets are not…
When Round 3 Markets opened, 203 of our forecasters got a bonus: 30 extra points to invest in the markets! Forecasters who trade enough on multiple rounds earn points based on their longevity and activity. After at least 2 qualifying rounds, you earn a 10% bonus (30 points). After at least 4 qualifying rounds, you…
Welcome to Round 3 Markets! In this round of Markets, we continue to examine the claims from the 18 journals of the Survey round. For a complete list, see our blog post.Timeline for Round 3 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, November 11, 12:00 UTC until Sunday, November 24, 23:59 UTC.Platform updates in Round 3:We…
We have added leaderboards to track Markets vs. Surveys and per-Round scores. This should give all forecasters (not just those who joined at the beginning of the project) a better idea of where they stand. The “Overall Market” is the default. It shows the total Expected Value of your entire market portfolio, using the current…