Replication Markets Round 7 finished May 25. Now that the Markets have closed, we can announce the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 26 winners! Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined…
If you’ve made trades in Round 7 markets, you may have noticed comments like : “[automated trade]”. These indicate trades made by one of our forecaster’s own DIY autotraders. You may wonder what are the rules bots have to follow when they work for their human forecasters. The Golden Rule for Bot Creation: Create only…
Forecasters came in strongly on the first day of the Market as 1,091 trades were made on 330 behavioral and social claims for Round 7! Trading continued at a steady pace, falling slightly the second day, and coming back strongly on the third. We anticipate robust activity from our forecasters during these two weeks! All forecasters received…
We introduced autotraders NoiseBot and PriorBot in Round 6 Markets to encourage forecaster activity. You, too, can create a bot to represent you in the markets! Or simply monitor your claims, report recent activity, or look for opportunities. What kind of market interaction would you like to automate? Want to get started? Clone the repo on…
We made a mistake when we set starting prices in Round 7, so we’re giving everyone 130 more points to help fix it. Normally, we set a claim’s starting price based on a simple model, its p-value: p < .001 starts at 80% p < .01 starts at 40%, p < .05 starts at 30%.…
In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 330 claims from the 23 journals of Round 7’s surveys. For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 7 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, May 11, 12:00 UTC until Monday, May 25, 06:00 UTC (that’s 11pm Sunday US EDT). Trading…
Welcome to Round 7! In this round, we examine 330 claims (published 2009-2018) from 23 journals: Academy of Management Journal American Economic Review American Educational Research Journal American Political Science Review American Sociological Review Child Development Comparative Political Studies Computers & Education Contemporary Educational Psychology Demography European Sociological Review Exceptional Children Journal of Conflict Resolution…
Meet the automated traders: Noise Bot and Prior Bot Two forecasters will make their debut trades in Replication Markets on Friday, April 17: Noise Bot and Prior Bot. These automated traders will wander around the market and make trades based on their algorithms. If you see one of them making trades on a claim in…
The new trade widget has the same functionality as the one you are familiar with from Rounds 1-5, with an added dimension. You will have a better sense of the point cost/gain of a trade as you adjust the slider. The balloon value shows the adjusted probability of replication; the red curves show how many…
Cross-posted from RM’s PI’s blog. Nature Communications has an inspiring piece about a DARPA project baking replication into the original study. The DARPA Biological Control program applies independent validation & verification (IV&V) to synthetic biology. The article is a Lessons Learned piece. Although DARPA oversight presumably mitigated the element of competition, the IV&V teams had at least…